§ siboliban.org

Still Jonesin’ about the MVP award

Two months ago, there was an article written by Associated Press Sports Writer R.B. Fallstrom about Albert Pujols winning his first MVP award in 2005. The article (”Pujols wins first MVP over Jones, Lee.” 16 Nov.2005) states that:

Pujols was among the league leaders in almost every major statistical category, tying for second in RBIs and ranking second in slugging percentage and on-base percentage, and getting more walks than strikeouts for the fourth straight season. His average with runners in scoring position, though, was only .207.

.207, really? To be sure that the last sentence was written on purpose, it’s followed by this quote:

“Albert’s award was well-deserved because he was the most valuable to our team across the board as soon as he showed up to the ballpark until he left,” La Russa said. “His value went beyond statistics.”

Now, anyone who claims to follow baseball, knows full well that Albert Pujols would never bat .207 with RISP over an entire season. It’s a pretty glaring error for an article that probably appeared in hundreds of sources. There’s something to that error that illustrates just how baseball writers seemed to want to overlook Pujols, which is also evidenced by the narrow 27 point margin by which he won the MVP award. He’s not really that valuable. But, what of the guy who came in second in the voting? The one who actually hit .207 with RISP?

I never understood the hype over Andruw Jones. Of course, I’m also a Mets fan. But, I’m bigger fan of baseball itself, and it seemed like Jones’ HR total was really getting people riled up in mysterious ways. I mean, nobody in the NL had hit more than 50 home runs since… 2001. Personally, I like players that hit for average rather than the fences.

Perhaps, I fail to see the importance of a solo home run. (32 of Jones’ 51 home runs were solo shots.) I heard one baseball commentator say that the solo home run was valuable because you’ve taken the burden off your teammates to drive you in, and a solo HR could also be a good rally starter. (A rally of solo home runs, perhaps? So as to not put too much pressure on your teammates?)

So, I decided to pick apart the games in which Jones hit his 51 home runs. This is what I found out:

Braves Record when Jones hit a home run: 30-12

But what about the run spread? Well…

1 run difference games: 4-5
2-3 run difference games: 8-2
4+ run difference games: 18-5

It looks like most of Jones’ home runs came in games with blow-outs, on either side. Much has been made about Jones carrying the Braves, but it seems like the team could still score runs. Of course, maybe Jones was the “rally starter” in those 18 wins.

Wins when Jones drove in the 1st run: 5
Out of those 5 wins, shutouts: 2
Wins when Jones drove in the tying or go ahead run: 3
Wins when Jones drove in a “filler” run: 10

The fact that Andruw Jones hit 51 home runs reminded me of the first year that I really followed baseball. The year was 1990, and that’s when Cecil Fielder hit 51 home runs. For no other reason than coincidence, I’ve decided to compare them.

Offensively, the 1990 Tigers and 2005 Braves were pretty similar.

Tigers: .259 BA, 750 R, 172 HR, 714 RBI, .745 OPS
Braves: .265 BA, 769 R, 184 HR, 733 RBI, .768 OPS

Tigers Runs Scored Per Game: 4.63
Braves Runs Scored Per Game: 4.75

Fielder and Jones lead their teams offensively by large margins.

Fielder: .277 BA, 104 R, 51 HR, 132 RBI, .969 OPS
Jones: .263 BA, 95 R, 51 HR, 128 RBI, .922 OPS

So, what were the difference makers?

Tigers SP ERA: 4.93
Braves SP ERA: 3.89

Tigers Overall ERA: 4.39
Braves Overall ERA: 3.98

Tigers Record: 79-83
Braves Record: 90-72

It’s the pitching, stupid.

Of course, it’s probably unfair to make this comparison. Jones is a spry CF and Fielder was a hulking 1B/DH. But, in 1990, Fielder came in second in the MVP voting, losing by 31 points to Rickey Henderson. So, home runs do have quite an allure. Maybe the allure is greater when they come from a guy who’s never going to hit that many home runs again, instead of a guy who’s just going to give you .300+ BA, 100+ R, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI every year. Oh yeah, and don’t forget that he plays for the Braves. Jones didn’t win the MVP award despite the hype, but he almost did, which irritates me.

One other fact of note is 1990 was the last year that the Braves didn’t win their division. Maybe 51 home runs could be a sign of something…

21 January 2006 – 1:00 PM